Category Archives: Election 2012

And yet … still I am voting Obama.

And yet … still I am voting Obama.

I wrote a piece the other day about the need for paying attention to the national debt, deficits, and paring expenses while balancing the budget.

Someone challenged me: how can I be concerned about these things ‘and yet’ vote Obama?

It is simple really.

I don’t see Obama as a great master of change. And no, I don’t believe that he has any grand plan for 2012-2016. He has disappointed me at times over the last four years — but I started out with lowered expectations since I’m a traditional Republican voter (70-80% of the time, maybe higher at local level).

So what do I see in Obama? Obama has lived up to his reputation of being ‘no drama Obama’ … which is good considering that the GOP has been after his ass since almost Day One with no intent of cooperating and working together for meaningful change and reform in any way on almost any issue. Obama has been a voice of stability working to bring most things to the center for resolution.

As for the incredible debt etc., every president develops each year a five year outlook into the future as to where budgets and debt are probably going. President Bush’s prediction for growth of our national debt has been Obama’s reality. Debt under Obama has barely differed from Bush’s prediction by 10% or less during his first two years in office.

—- As for Year 3 (2011) and Year 4 (2012), President Bush’s budget projection assumed that the war would be over in Afghanistan by 2011 and so no funds were programmed. Add the war expenses back in and accrued debt during Obama’s entire term is almost a straight line from where it was on Day One of his presidency, and in line with Bush FY2009′s Five Year Presidential Budget projection.

As for Obama’s legacy of debt to programs that started under his presidency: less new debt created by any president since Truman.

If you are a social conservative sure there are lots of reasons not to like Obama. If you are a fiscal conservative that understands basic math and understands the difference between ‘incurred obligated debt’ and debt due to new programs then Obama has been pretty good with a dollar.

My second reason for supporting Obama and essentially defecting from my GOP roots of almost 30 years: I really don’t think that the GOP gets it. They are not really so pissed off about Obama’s policies as they are that they lost in 2008. All this talk about ‘taking our country back’ is usually just empty, angry rhetoric that translates to ‘sure the country melted down on our watch but that was just a fluke. We like things the way they were’.

And so with just days to go until the election I do remain very concerned about America’s future, that damned fiscal cliff will be a much deeper drop than many suspect, and runaway debt seems endless. And yet … and yet I am voting for someone that I believe really has no plan, or any objective, that is any bigger or more grandiose than keeping America’s economy stable and just buying time to heal on its own. That is a classical conservative approach.

My choice may not be a brilliant choice. But for me it is a far better choice than voting for a return to what got us here to begin with.

Leave a Comment

Filed under Deficit Spending, Economic Recovery, Election 2012, National Debt

Candidate Romney and the presidential debate – Oct 3, 2012 – Some challenges

A number of folks have commented that Romney needs to come off as being human in his first debate with President Obama on October 3rd.

True enough … Romney does need to appear to be human.

Not everyone makes for a strong public figure. Thomas Jefferson was considered a dynamic thinker only when his words are considered. He did not publicly portray strength and leadership in public — yet when the going got tough he had enough wits and humility about him to step down as governor of Virginia so that someone with a leadership personality could take the office and to do justice by the citizens of Virginia.

For Romney – appearing to be human (someone that exudes considerate thought and empathy) will be a herculean task inasmuch as Romney needs to overcome his 47% remarks, the negatives of being the founder and chief proponent of Bain (this is a philosophical argument, but when you refer to your firm as being a harvester of other companies you really need to explain why this isn’t related to a Soylent Green economy), being unwilling to follow the example set by his father of laying your cards on the table to show that you have nothing to hide (the standard of showing the last 10 years of tax returns as a minimum), and being someone that has published an 87 page ‘50 Point Plan‘ on his website that offers no details at all about how the rhetorical ‘Plan’ would have a chance of ever happening … The 50 Point Plan does a great job of pointing out what needs fixing but offers few clues as to how to do that.

Romney needs also to portray how he would not be a stooge of the Tea Party and folks like Rush Limbaugh, who famously advised him: ‘This election isn’t about you, it is about Obama‘. Romney also needs to explain how he could keep his PROMISE to raise defense spending by approximately 16%, so that it equals 4% of GDP ($578B) while balancing the debt and how he would go about his campaign PROMISE of creating 12,000,000 jobs with four years.

I have a few other thoughts … but Romney needs to get beyond these if he wants to convince folks that he is a better option than the devil we already know.

President Obama is not the perfect candidate either — but we’ve come to know him. In most respects President Obama is just President George Bush’s third term with healthcare reform thrown in … and Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell thrown out.

Leave a Comment

Filed under Democratic Party, Economic Recovery, Election 2012, Elections, Jobs & Employment, Republican Party

Candidate Romney and the presidential debate – Oct 3, 2012 – Some challenges

A number of folks have commented that Romney needs to come off as being human in his first debate with President Obama on October 3rd.

True enough … Romney does need to appear to be human.

Not everyone makes for a strong public figure. Thomas Jefferson was considered a dynamic thinker only when his words are considered. He did not publicly portray strength and leadership in public — yet when the going got tough he had enough wits and humility about him to step down as governor of Virginia so that someone with a leadership personality could take the office and to do justice by the citizens of Virginia.

For Romney – appearing to be human (someone that exudes considerate thought and empathy) will be a herculean task inasmuch as Romney needs to overcome his 47% remarks, the negatives of being the founder and chief proponent of Bain (this is a philosophical argument, but when you refer to your firm as being a harvester of other companies you really need to explain why this isn’t related to a Soylent Green economy), being unwilling to follow the example set by his father of laying your cards on the table to show that you have nothing to hide (the standard of showing the last 10 years of tax returns as a minimum), and being someone that has published an 87 page ‘50 Point Plan‘ on his website that offers no details at all about how the rhetorical ‘Plan’ would have a chance of ever happening … The 50 Point Plan does a great job of pointing out what needs fixing but offers few clues as to how to do that.

Romney needs also to portray how he would not be a stooge of the Tea Party and folks like Rush Limbaugh, who famously advised him: ‘This election isn’t about you, it is about Obama‘. Romney also needs to explain how he could keep his PROMISE to raise defense spending by approximately 16%, so that it equals 4% of GDP ($578B) while balancing the debt and how he would go about his campaign PROMISE of creating 12,000,000 jobs with four years.

I have a few other thoughts … but Romney needs to get beyond these if he wants to convince folks that he is a better option than the devil we already know.

President Obama is not the perfect candidate either — but we’ve come to know him. In most respects President Obama is just President George Bush’s third term with healthcare reform thrown in … and Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell thrown out.

Leave a Comment

Filed under Democratic Party, Economic Recovery, Election 2012, Elections, Politics, Republican Party

Americans abandon Democratic and Republican Brands – U.S. Political Party Identification as of September 2012

U.S. Political Party Identification

For the first time since polls began asking the question ‘Do you consider yourself a ______’, both the Democrats and Republicans have significantly lost brand association with Americans.

I consider myself ‘an Independent’ overtook both Democratic and Republican brand identification in early-2011 and has held its #1 identification spot ever since.

Voter Identification by Party as of 2012.09.30

Voter Identification by Party as of 2012.09.30 PollTracker

The biggest loser appears to be the GOP.

Loss of identification with being ‘Republican’ is strange since the the percentage of Americans that consider themselves ‘conservative’ remains a strongly dominating 46% over the 20% that identify as ‘liberal’. The Conservative brand has remained strong since 1980, never once dropping below 40% per Gallup.

Voter ideologic identification - 2012 0900

Voter ideologic identification per Gallup.com

One response from some Republicans is that loss of identification with the GOP just represents those conservatives unhappy with the party itself, and thus they declare themselves to be independent.

HOWEVER, when Independents are asked which party they lean towards then the Democrats have consistently come out ahead (Gallup Sep 2012) which can only be interpreted as a significant number of center-right Americans find it difficult to sympathisze with the Republican Party itself as the better choice over the Democratic Party.

Party Identification as of 2012 0900 per Gallup.com

Party Identification as of September 2012 per Gallup.com

Sources: http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-party-identification and http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Leave a Comment

Filed under American History, Democratic Party, Demographics, Election 2012, Independents, Republican Party

Bill4DogCatcher’s prediction for 2012 Election results

Making predictions about elections as volatile as 2012 is a sure way to end up embarrassed when it is all over.

There is plenty of time yet for stupid shenanigans and for events to change the playing field.

As I see it now, this will be the 2012 election results on election day: Democrats keep the Senate and pick up 1-2 seats; Democrats take back the House with a slim majority of some 15-25 seats; and President Obama gets reelected with a 5-8% margin and 340-350 electoral college votes.

Third party candidates will draw off no more than 3% of the popular vote.

Since ‘conservatives’ greatly outnumber ‘liberals’ in the USA (40%-21%) then I believe some soul-searching is in order to bring conservatism back as a viable political philosophy … one that even conservatives are willing to vote for, as well as a few moderates.

Leave a Comment

Filed under Democratic Party, Election 2012, Elections

President Obama Meets Ohioans … and discusses whether we are better off four years later (Humor)

President Obama recently travelled to Ohio where he met the locals and discussed the question: “Are you better off than four years ago.”

He did this on Saturday Night, Live.

Leave a Comment

Filed under Economic Recovery, Economics, Election 2012, Elections

Gary Johnson vs The Zombies … Strange, very strange.

Strange, very strange.

This video is not likely to gain many new votes … strange, very strange … Gary Johnson vs The Zombies … one of 2012′s stranger appeals to voters.

Did I mention ‘strange’? … and wearing a peace sign on his tshirt probably just cost him a few votes from Republicans that were otherwise looking for options.

Leave a Comment

Filed under Election 2012, Elections, Libertarianism

Voter Fraud – It happens. Winning the lottery also (more often) happens.

A recent discussion with friends focused on voter fraud.

The line of reasoning went something like:

We have to show an ID to do X, Y & Z so why not voting too?
We have to do something to stop voter fraud.

These are the same folks that would become apoplectic should we also discuss the need for a national ID card.

Everyone should show some form of identification but we shouldn’t go crazy on what constitutes ID.

I have no problem with some form of ID being presented in order to vote: a driver license, birth certificate (voting is your birth right (now)), an electric bill with your name, whatever that identifies YOU as being you.

I even think that it is a super idea to stick a person’s finger in a bottle of ink after voting — ink that won’t wash off for a week; then we would also know who are the real whiners in life in the days after each election.

BOTTOMLINE: Voter Fraud – It happens. Winning the lottery also happens.

You and I have a greater chance of winning the lottery ($1M+) than discovering a new confirmable case of voter fraud.

Since 2000 there have been just 633 nationwide confirmed instances of voter fraud out of hundreds of millions of ballots cast.

The greater chance of ballot fraud comes in the counting of ballots cast, or when ballots are manually counted. It is the ballot custodians that need the watching.

Approximately 1,600 people win $1 million or more in lottery winnings each year. With winning odds like that then perhaps those that believe the expense of special voter identification measures should also be regular purchasers of lottery tickets.

Voter Fraud Cases since 2000

Visit the Slate.com interactive voter fraud map and learn more about voter fraud in your area.

Leave a Comment

Filed under Election 2012, Elections, Politics

The Skeptical Libertarian says about being a GOP spoiler vote during 2012

Chances are good in 2012 that a majority of libertarians lean center-right and should favor Republicans.

Libertarians are a bit unpredictable. Leaning doesn’t mean pulling the lever.

From The Skeptical Libertarian, here is one view:

“A lot of people say that the Libertarian Party just works as a spoiler, because it can’t win. Well GOOD. That’s a valuable function: it penalizes the Republican Party for being anti-immigration, anti-gay, pro-war, and lousy on personal liberty. It shows that there’s a significant group of people who are fiscally responsible and are being alienated by the Republicans’ backward social priorities. That’s the kind of pressure we need to put on the GOP, since reforming it from within is evidently a failed project.”

“If it does nothing else but spoil the election for Romney, to me it will have served its purpose entirely.”

Leave a Comment

Filed under Election 2012, Libertarianism, Republican Party

Barack Obama – ‘the worst president in history’ – koolaid and destiny

Over and over the faithful repeat the mantra that President Barack Obama is the worst president in history, and the second coming of Jimmy Carter.

Keep drinking the koolaid: The GOP is doing itself longterm damage if it keeps up the mantra  that President Obama is the worst president in history. That constant repetition would seem to absolve the GOP of coming up with ideas and having to appeal to people with real alternatives.

Repeatedly saying the worst president in history just means that the rest of America is comprised of idiots if they somehow don’t see it that way. Some of those idiots vote.

Bad news: when it comes to Obama being the worst president in history the rest of America doesn’t see it that way. Not the great majority nor a simple majority see it that way.

Surveys show that fewer than half of Americans blame Obama for today’s economic situation. Two-thirds still blame the Bush Administration — you can’t get to 2/3rds unless a sizeable number of Republicans also believe the same way … and they do.

Surveys show that independents such as myself would like to vote for a conservative candidate … but we aren’t buying  the worst president in history mantra. Mitt Romney responded recently to complaints that he wasn’t bashing Obama enough — Romney noted that his own focus groups just didn’t buy in to the storyline of the worst president in history.

Yes, Obama made some promises that he couldn’t keep. As a conservative independent (a real one, not one that votes straight GOP and then claims to be independent), I’m disappointed in a lot of things as regards the Obama Administration. However, I also don’t believe that the GOP has acted in good faith over the last four years. The GOP has shown neither the ideas nor the maturity of real remorse to claim that it can do better than Obama.

I voted GOP and for John McCain in 2008. In 2012 I lean towards Libertarian Gary Johnson but will vote for Obama if it appears that Virginia is on the edge of tipping to Mitt Romney, which at this time it is not.

Yes, I want the GOP to lose. A big loss would be great. Super. I would like the GOP to have a come-to-Jesus moment where it really reflects on how we and it got here.

As a stalwart GOP member from 1980-2009 it hurts me to say that I would like the GOP to go down in defeat in 2012 — but it is also the truth.

For the GOP, the last four years have been all about ‘taking our country back’ … back to what? … and to when? … Occasionally the words get mumbled ‘We could have done better …’. Those few perfunctory words are neither sincere nor followed by examinable public policy that shows the GOP means action, real reform, and not just more empty words that can’t pass a Math 101 review.

President Barack Obama is not the worst president in history.

Chances are good that history will record Obama as a president with a difficult economy that includes an aging population and a revolution in business productivity plus massive outsourcing plus two wars on his hands. History will also record that anything that Obama achieved was done with one of the most intransigent oppositions ever in American history by a Congress that was at a low of 19% approval rating — and has since fallen to barely a 10% approval level lead by folks that want to take us back and to tell us that President Barack Obama is the worst president in history, and the second coming of Jimmy Carter.

Leave a Comment

Filed under American History, Economic Recovery, Economics, Election 2012, Republican Party