Category Archives: California

California | Proposition 14: Do Away With Political Primaries

by Bill Golden
Bill4DogCatcher.com aka JeffersonConservatives.com

A good idea! … California will offer voters the chance to radically change how leadership gets elected by eliminating political primaries.

Passage of Proposition 14 would establish a general primary where all voters vote for their favorite, without regard to political party.

Under Proposition 14, the top two vote recipients would run against each in the general election.

This could result in:

  • Democrat vs Democrat
  • Republican vs Republican
  • Democrat vs Republican
  • Independent vs …

This could also open the way for third parties to be more successful.

One line of thought in support of Proposition 14 is that our current system encourages the fringe of both Left and Right — political primaries tend to focus on the organizational and rhetorical capabilities of emotional and hot button issues.

An open primary where candidates must appeal to the entire electorate should produce candidates more willing to talk straighter sooner and without regard to pandering to the political extremes.

This is a good idea and gets my vote of approval. I encourage others to support similar approaches across the USA.

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From Ballotpedia.org:

Specifically, it would provide for a “voter-nominated primary election” for each state elective office and congressional office in California. Voters could vote in the primary election for any candidate for a congressional or state elective office without regard to the political party affiliations of either the candidate or the voter. Candidates could choose whether or not to have their political party affiliation displayed on the ballot.

The proposition also prohibits political parties from nominating candidates in a primary, although political parties would be allowed to endorse, support or oppose candidates. Elections for presidential candidates, and for members of political party committees and party central steering committees would not fall under the “top two” system.

Californians defeated Proposition 62 in 2004, a similar measure, by 54-46%. State of Washington voters approved a very similar measure, Initiative 872, in 2004, while Oregon voters rejected Measure 65, also a similar measure, in 2008.

The main argument supporters make in favor of Proposition 14 is that it might cause voters to elect more moderate members of the California State Legislature. Opponents make two main arguments. They say that that in states where a similar system is in use, it has not resulted in the election of more moderate politicians, and that if the Proposition 14 is approved, it will result in the destruction of California’s minor and independent political parties.

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Filed under California, Democratic Party, Elections, Republican Party

Voter Factoids – The Republican 2010/2012 Challenge, Part I

As Republicans move closer to 2010 there are some things that they must keep in mind as the GOP appeals for support from both Republican voters and the general public:

Republican voters are not monolithic, and can be quite contrarian. While the right tends to make a lot of noise, support for President Obama dropped the most among Republican moderates and liberals (-22%) between June and July 2009. Support among conservatives dropped -12%. (4)

Without any majority appeal to voter groups other than white Americans over the age of 40, a troubling indicator for the GOP is “income”. White Americans with income above $75,000 actually increased their support for President Obama between June and July 2009 (+2%), whereas support dropped 10% among those earning less than $75,000. (4)

With exception to AK, GA, ID, LA, MS, OK, UT, and WY, young voters since 2004 have strongly or overwhelmingly (70%+) voted Democratic. There is a virtual tie among young voter loyalties in AR and WV. (3) Historically, young voters tend to stay with the same party if they vote two or more times in a row for that party. Without a major shift in demographics towards the GOP, even should the Republicans pull an upset win within the next 4-6 years it may be a short-lived victory once younger voters enter their 30s and 40s — at which time voters become more likely to vote.

Within Republican-controlled red states, but not Democratic blue states (1):

  • Income tends to be a predictor of how important issues are. The higher a voter’s income the more important specific issues are to the voter.
  • Lower income voters are less likely to lean heavily one way or the other on issues other than economic.
  • Issues become more important the more often a person attends church.

Media concentration within these four major markets — New York, Maryland, Virginia, and California — results in issue discussion saturation which tends to negate the relationship between income and issues; translation: appeals to voters must be broad-based across the income spectrum. It is impossible for someone living in these regions not to be constantly exposed to an issue’s pros and cons. (1) Due to their size, these four states contain a major portion of electoral votes and are must win battlegrounds.

Black middle-class urban voters focus heavily on social issues regardless of income or age, whereas white voters tend to vote on economic issues. GOP focus on primarily economic issues does not have traction with the black urban middle class. (2)

Sources:

1 – How Republican and Democratic Voters Differ, Apr 2009, http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/20/how_republican_and_democratic_voters_differ/

2 – Day, S. D. , 2004-04-15 “Urban Black Voters v. Black Middle Class Voters: Is a Second Realignment Possible to the Republican Party”, http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/0/8/2/4/6/p82462_index.html

3 – U.S. Election Atlas, http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=100143.0

4 – Pew Research Center, 2009, http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1559

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Filed under California, Democratic Party, Economics, Election 2010, Election 2012, Future, Maryland, New York, Progressive Movement, Republican Party, Virginia