Another high level political analyst, normally favorable to the Republican side, seems to be agreeing with David Frum that 3/21 will be remembered as a Republican Waterloo moment. … This is a strange sentiment coming from a strange place since the MarketWatch is owned by the same folks that own Fox News.
David Frum has left the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) since publishing his article on 3/21. Was his brazen assessment the cause? The exact nature of his leaving is not clear but it appears that he was fired — see FrumForum.com for more info.
Now, political columnist Darrell Delamaide (Washington Times, Newsdesk Media) has come out with his view that the Republican Party lined up on the wrong side of history on health-care reform and will pay the price in midterm elections. (1)
Delamaide says that Democrats will lose seats – the president’s party usually does in midterms – but not nearly as many as they would have without the passage of healthcare reform.
B4DC sez: As a Republican-friendly guy myself (Bill4DogCatcher.com), my money is on the Republicans coming to within inches of taking the House and then failing to win it in November 2010. The problem for Republicans is that their only plan seems to be pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey —- throw names (Socialist, Obamacommunist, etc.) and harrass the Democrats with everything imaginable —- but not actually present any comprehensive ideas of their own.
Comprehensive means you do the math and then make a case that 51% or more of Americans believe works in their favor.
If Republicans and allies get ugly this summer then it is all over. Americans may not like or appreciate the cost of some of the Democratic programs but they are tiring of bad manners.
Oops! Don’t go there — Republicans like to point out how low congressional popularity is. What they fail to point is that the public’s approval rating of congressional Republicans is even lower (6% very positive, 25% somewhat positive) than that of the Democrats (9% very positive, 28% somewhat positive), AND even lower than the approval rating of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (27%). (2, 3)
However, Republicans have another worry other than the Democrats: the TEA Party.
A number of polls have suggested since December 2009 that the TEA Party is more popular among conservatives and the rightwing than even Republicans themselves. Much more.
This is worrisome, or should be worrisome, for Republicans because the TEA party constituency and that of the Republicans is largely the same. 81% of TEA party members identify themselves are favorable to Republicans in a Quinnipiac poll released March 24th (4).
Rasmussen polling shows that the TEA Party brand has taken a major hit in popularity recently, but TEA Partyers were outpolling Republicans until early February. In the figures below you will see that Republicans and TEA Partyers are sharing market share – about 41-42%. One cannot win without the other losing.
- TEA 23%, Reps 18% — 2009.12.07 popularity (5)
- TEA 17%, Reps 25% — 2010.02.09 popularity (6)
B4DC sez: A problem with above numbers is that at no point do the Republicans and the TEA party ever get near to attracting 50% of the voting-eligible public. If I were Republican I would be worried. A TEA Party that does not act as a branch of the Republican Party is disastrous for positive results in November 2010.
1 – MarketWatch, ‘Party of No’ strategy backfires Democrats’ midterm chances get a boost from health-care reform: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/party-of-no-strategy-backfires-2010-03-24
2 – NBC/Wall Street Journal Survey 13-14 March, 2010: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/wsjnbcpoll03162010.pdf
3 – Congressional Favorability Ratings: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_favorability_ratings
4 – Quinnipiac University: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1436
5 – Rasmussen: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/december_2009/tea_party_tops_gop_on_three_way_generic_ballot
6 – Rasmussen: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2010/tea_party_candidate_now_comes_in_last_on_three_way_generic_ballot